August 6, 2011: Mariners 5, Angels 1 (49-63)

The Mariners won another game today. That brings their record to 6-4 in their last ten games. Finally, it seems like all the long streaks and bizarre occurrences are over. The Mariners are back to being a normal baseball team, and normal baseball teams are stable and predictable. Now is the time to crunch some numbers and figure out where this team is going.

Here is my basic methodology:

1. Create a table tracking number of games played against number of games won.
2. Plot that data in a graph.
3. Use least squares regression to find the model that best fits the data.
4. Use that model to generate a forecast of future performance.
5. Make the graph all pretty and colorful.
6. Save the graph as a jpeg.
7. Explain my methodology.
8. Paste the graph into the body of the text.
9. Ramble incoherently.

A few things jump out here:

1. The r-squared is 0.99472, about as close to 1 as you could practically hope for. This indicates that over 99% of the Mariners’ win/loss record is explained by this model. It’s very, very accurate, and can be trusted unreservedly.
2. The future is bleak. The Mariners are actually forecast to win a negative amount of games from now until the end of the season.
3. The Mariners are forecast to end the year with a record of approximately 7-155. This would be, by far, the worst record ever in baseball history.

I know this probably isn’t what you want to hear. Most people are actually feeling pretty optimistic about the Mariners — they’ve got a whole bunch of interesting young players who haven’t yet proven themselves to be bad at baseball, and they’ve managed as of late to avoid losing literally every single game. Unfortunately, if this data can be trusted (and it can — look at that r-squared!) that optimism is nothing but a mirage. Very soon, things are going to get a whole lot worse. The Mariners are going to plumb some heretofore-unseen depths of failure. If you’re a fan of the Mariners, I sure hope you like to limbo, because we’re about to find out just how low you can go.