July 22-24, 2011: Mariners something, Red Sox something more (43-58)

So, the Mariners losing streak just hit fifteen. What happened? Why did this team that for most of the year didn’t lose every single game suddenly start losing every single game? The short answer is it’s inexplicable, but that’s not going to stop me from trying to explain it.

Here’s an interesting statistic: over the past fifteen games, the Mariners have averaged 2.67 runs scored per game. Over the same stretch, they’ve averaged 5.8 runs allowed per game. That right there is probably the most direct reason they've been losing. You aren’t going to win many games in which you allow twice as many runs as you score. But you want more. The pain of this losing streak is eating at you, and you’re hungry for answers. Let’s dig deeper.

Why have the Mariners allowed so many more runs than they’ve scored recently? Well, over the same fifteen game stretch, they’ve recorded 7.93 hits per game while allowing 10.27 hits per game. In general, when you get less hits, you get less runs. So that explains everything! Yes!

Except, not really. Why have the Mariners allowed more hits than they’ve recorded recently? One explanation could be that they’ve wilted in the summer heat like so many unwatered petunias. Or, it could be that they’ve always been this bad, and their early-season success was just a luck-fueled house of cards that is finally collapsing. Or maybe they couldn’t handle the pressure of a playoff race and they’re choking like a man trying to swallow a starfish. Or they’re trying too hard. Or they aren’t trying hard enough. The possibilities are endless, and unless you’re a mind reader (I am not) there’s no way to know. However, there is another, stronger possibility: it’s just wild, random chance.

How could that be? A team losing fifteen games in a row is colossally unlikely! Don’t tell me it’s just random chance! Well, that’s actually what I’m going to tell you. Here’s some math: let’s say that, given the relative talent levels of the Mariners and their opponents, the chances of the Mariners winning each individual game was around forty percent (I’m being generous so that nobody can accuse me of warping the stats to fit a narrative). That means that the probability of fifteen consecutive losses is around .047%, or around one in two thousand. That’s pretty low. However, consider this: for each individual team, there are approximately 148 stretches of fifteen games within a season. There are 30 teams in baseball. By my calculations, 148 times 30 is 4,440. Way more than 2,000. So a stretch this unlikely should actually happen to someone about twice a season. Unfortunately, this time the Mariners drew the short straw. C’est la vie.

So, this losing streak can basically be said to be happening because it is a thing that is happening. When looked at that way, who cares? Ride the wave! Go down with the ship! See how low you can go! Or not. Whatever.